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Market report Hamburg 1st half of year 2022

- About the logistics market in the economic region

Sharp decline in take-up on the Hamburg industrial and logistics property market

The Hamburg industrial and logistics property market fell short of the record take-up posted in the same period of the previous year. Although the take-up of 250,000 m² recorded by all market participants from January to June 2022 constitutes an outstanding half-year, the second-strongest in the last five reporting periods, it was 21.9% below the prior-year figure of 320,000 m². The five-year average for the first half of the year of 217,660 m² was exceeded by some 14.9%.



The decline is not due to demand, which remains very stable. The reason for the decline in letting business is the shortage of space across the Hamburg market area, which means there are hardly any new project developments to speak of.

Facts

  • Short supply kicks in – hardly any development activity

  • Every second square metre let in southern Hamburg

  • Logistics ahead of retail and industry again

  • Large spaces dominate at 65%

  • Prime rent climbs to EUR 7.50/m² for the first time

  • Outlook: stable demand expected – manufacturing sector to bounce back

At 162,500 m², major deals of 10,000 m² or more were a key factor in the latest result. All five top deals were over the 10,000 m² mark.

While third-party users dominate the Hamburg market, accounting for 162,500 m² or 65% of take-up, owner-occupiers generated 80,000 m² or 32% of take-up.

Nearly three quarters of all space (73%) was let in “big boxes”. These are properties that are not located in business parks, are used for logistics and have hall space of more than 10,000 m², a height of at least 10 m and an office share of less than 20%. They accounted for 182,500 m². At 23% or 57,500 m², business parks account for just under a quarter of the space, and none of the remaining 10,000 m² was situated in big boxes or traditional business parks.

Lessors with highest take-up

Pfaff Logistik GmbH, HH eastern surrounding area, approx. 29,500 m² (Existing property), Logistics

JYSJ SE, HH Southapprox. 24,000 m² (New build), Retail

Bechtle AGHH Southapprox. 18,800 m² (New build), Logistics

Fiege Logistik, HH Eastapprox. 18,500 m² (New build), Logistics

Aldi, HH eastern surrounding areaapprox. 15,000 m² (New build), Retail

Take-up by region: ranking as in 2021

The South region, the long-established leader, again recorded the highest take-up in the first half of 2022 with a total of 117,500 m² or 47%, accounting for nearly every second square metre let. Compared with the previous year, the South region saw its importance increase slightly by +1.4 percentage points, from 146,000 m² or 45.6%. Two of the top five deals were concluded in the southern surrounding area: the Danish retail chain JYSK SE leased 24,000 m², followed by Bechtle AG with 18,800 m².

The remaining ranking positions are also unchanged: as in the previous year, the East region came second with 75,000 m², representing a share of 30%, compared with 95,000 m² or 29.7% previously. The biggest and the two smallest top take-ups made a key contribution to the total take-up (63,000 m² or 84%): Pfaff Logistik GmbH with 29,500 m², Fiege Logistik with 18,500 m² and Aldi with 15,000 m².

As it did last year, the North region came third with 37,500 m² or 15% (H1 2021: 69,000 m² or 21.6%). It saw the biggest relative decline out of all regions, with pro rata take-up down 6.6 percentage points. In absolute terms, it posted a decrease of 45.6%, the heaviest of all regions year-on-year.

The West region again brought up the rear in the last half-year with 20,000 m² or 8% (H1 2021: 10,000 m² or 3.1%), with take-up also increasing in absolute terms. 

Logistics ahead of retail and industry again

Logistics/distribution has been posting the highest take-up on the Hamburg industrial and logistics property market since the first half of 2016. Take-up in the sector currently amounts to 147,500 m² or a share of 59%. Compared with previous first half-years, this is the highest percentage share, followed by H1 2018, where it came to 58% or 133,400 m².
 

Three of the top five contributions to take-up came from this sector: in total, Pfaff Logistik GmbH, Bechtle AG and Fiege Logistik posted 66,800 m² or 45.3%.



Retail has been in second place since H1 2016. This sector recorded a combined 82,500 m² or 33% of total take-up. Traditional retail was the main contributor here with 55,000 m² or 66.7%, while e-commerce amounted to 27,500 m² or 33.3%. In total, the top deals by JYSK SE and Aldi accounted for 39,000 m² or 70.9% of take-up by traditional retail.
 

Manufacturing and the miscellaneous category “Other” came joint third with 10,000 m² or 4% each: none of the current top deals were made in these sectors. At -12 percentage points, manufacturing saw the sharpest decline in relative share, by more than 40,000 m² in absolute terms (H1 2021: 51,200 m² or 16%).

Large spaces dominate at 65%

 

As in the same period of the previous year, all top deals were concluded in the 10,000 m² and above size category, which helped to secure first place for this category once again, with 162,500 m² or 65% (H1 2021: 169,600 m²).
 

In the last six months, larger spaces between 5,001 and 10,000 m² accounted for 10% of space or 25,000 m², taking second place (H1 2021: 48,000 m² or 15%).



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Medium-sized to larger spaces between 3,001 and 5,000 m² currently occupy third place with 20,000 m² or 8% (H1 2021: 28,800 or 9%). Smaller spaces between 1,001 and 3,000 m² came bottom with 17,500 m² or 7% (H1 2021: 57,600 m² or 18%; -11 percentage points or a decrease of just under 70% in absolute terms).

The only size category where take-up increased in absolute terms is the smallest spaces of less than 1,000 m². With total take-up of 25,000 m² or 10% of the total market, they posted a rise of 56.3% (H1 2021: 16,000 m² or 5%), taking joint second place alongside larger spaces.

Prime rent climbs to EUR 7.50/m² for the first time

With a rise of 19%, the first half of 2022 saw the highest increase in prime rent since records began. The highest level to date is EUR 7.50/m², compared with EUR 6.30/m² in H1 2021, which represents a significant difference of EUR 1.20/m². The five-year average of EUR 6.36/m² was exceeded by some 17.9%. According to our assessment, the reason for the sharp rise in prime rent is the shortage of space and the increase in construction costs and land prices

Material shortages and increased material costs are making it increasingly difficult for project developers to calculate construction costs and factor them into rents. This leads to rising costs during the construction phase, which general contractors pass on to developers through price escalation clauses.

Average rent is also rising dynamically, albeit much more moderately than the development of prime rent. In the first half of 2022, it rose by 5.8% to EUR 5.50/m², from EUR 5.20/m² in H1 2021. Average rent is 9.1% higher than the current five-year average of €5.04/m².

Outlook

It remains to be seen how the war in Ukraine and the disrupted supply chains will affect the Hamburg economy, which depends on exports via its port, up until the end of the year. We expects stable demand in all size categories along with shrinking supply and equally few new construction projects up until the end of 2022. For these reasons, we expect total take-up of around 450,000 m² up until the end of the year.


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