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01.02.2024

Cologne region: REALOGIS market analysis for logistics and industrial property in 2023

  • Clear downward trend in take-up confirmed
  • Slump in new construction activity, no brownfield developments
  • Industry rankings: retail dominates
  • Size segment from 3,001 m² still in high demand
  • Prime rents climb to €8.00/m²

Cologne, 2 February 2024 – The Cologne market for owner-occupied and rented industrial and logistics properties continued the negative trend of the previous year. Recording a drop of 32.6%, the total take-up of 168,100 m² achieved by all market participants in 2023 was lower than the previous year's result of 249,400 m², which was in turn around 20% lower than 2021 (2021: take-up of 313,300 m²). The five-year average, which currently stands at 224,900 m², was missed by a significant 25.3%. This is the conclusion of the latest analysis by Realogis, Germany's leading consultancy for industrial, logistics and commercial properties.

Existing properties dominate the market, accounting for 154,900 m² or 92.1%, up from 155,700 m² and 62.4% in 2022. They thus increased their share of total take-up by 29.7 percentage points.

"The reason for the further increase in the importance of existing space can be found in the significant slump in new construction activity," reports Bülent Alemdag, Managing Director of Realogis Immobilien GmbH. The consultancy firm has served the top three logistics markets in NRW, including Cologne, with an 11-strong team based in Düsseldorf since it was founded in 2007.


With take-up of just 13,200 m² or 7.9%, the slump in rentals of space in new builds is -80,500 m² or -86% (2022: 93,700 m² or 37.6% of market activity).


Brownfield developments once again played no role on the Cologne market.


In terms of building type, big-box properties accounted for 63,900 m² or 38% (2022: 163,800 m² or 65.7%), ranking first and well ahead of rentals of space in business parks in third place, which recorded figures of 40,500 m² or 24.1% (2022: 17,700 m² or 7.1%). Properties that are neither big-box properties nor business parks remained in second place with 63,700 m² or 37.9% (2022: 67,900 m² or 27.2%). While big boxes saw take-up decline by around 100,000 m² or 61% and thus experienced the most significant loss in importance of all building types year-on-year in both absolute and relative terms (-27.7 percentage points), business parks were the only category to increase in absolute terms – by 22,800 m² or 128%.


In terms of users, Cologne was exclusively a lessor's market in 2023. Realogis did not register a single contract for owner-occupancy.


Biggest deals

Company

Take-up

Sector

Type

Centershop

34,300 m²

Traditional retail

Existing property

E-Rocket

19,500 m²

E-commerce

Existing property

Computacenter

26,500 m²

Other

Existing property


Industry rankings: Retail dominates – logistics/distribution only in third place
Retail regained the top spot for the first time since 2021, accounting for 67,500 m² or 40.2% and moving up from the second place it held in 2022 when it recorded 80,200 m² or 32.2%. With the exception of the "Other" category, all sectors saw a decline in take-up, with retail falling the least (-12,700 m² or -15.8%).

Within the retail sector, traditional retail dominated with 59.7% or 40,300 m². Moving up from second place where it had recorded 33,200 m² or 41.4%, the sub-category grew by 7,100 m² and overtook e-commerce in the past full year. This sub-category accounted for 27,200 m² of accumulated take-up, or 40.3%, within the retail category (2022: 47,000 m² or 58.6%) at the end of 2023.

The collective category "Other" came in second place with 49,100 m² or 29.2% (2022: 31,300 m² or 12.6%).

In third place is the logistics/distribution sector, which typically ranks first or second on the Cologne market, with 44,900 m² or 26.7%, down from 95,400 m² or 38.3%, and which thus recorded the most significant absolute decline of all sectors, falling 50,500 m² or -52.9%. The sector's five-year average of around 80,000 m² was missed by a significant 44%.

Manufacturing brought up the rear with 6,600 m² or 3.9% (2022: 42,500 m² or 17%). This comparatively low level was last seen in 2016 when it stood at around 3% or 6,450 m². The sector fell 82% short of its own five-year average (36,000 m²), the largest margin of all.


Size segment from 3,001 m² still in high demand

Just over half of take-up in 2023 was accounted for by large spaces of 10,001 m² or more. Accounting for 85,900 m² or 51.1%, the segment continues to lead the other space categories, but lost 100,100 m² or 53.8% in absolute terms and 23.5% in relative terms (2022: 186,000 m² or 74.6%).

With 21,600 m² or 12.8%, the size category between 5,001 and 10,000 m² only ranks fourth (it still occupied second place in 2022 when it totalled 36,200 m² or 14.5%).

"As a result, large spaces of 5,001 m² or more have lost a total of 114,700 m² of take-up over the year as a whole and currently only account for 64% of total take-up," says Bülent Alemdag. "This means that the concentration of large spaces continued to weaken in 2023. In 2022, almost nine out of ten square metres taken up were in spaces of 5,001 m² or more, whereas the current figure is just over six out of ten."


Realogis recorded take-up of 37,500 m² or a share of 22.3% for the category of medium-sized properties between 3,001 and 5,000 m². Coming from fourth place, this category has risen to second place with the largest absolute increase of all size categories – 25,200 m² or +200% – and thus tripling take-up.


Small to medium-sized spaces of between 1,000 and 3,000 m² accounted for the third highest take-up of space at 23,100 m² or 13.7% (2022: 13,700 m² or 5.5%). No deals were registered for the smallest spaces of less than 1,000 m².


Prime rents climb to €8.00/m²

In the logistics property segment, the Cologne market has seen the second most significant increase in rents in the last five years, with prime rents rising by a whopping 14.3% to €8.00/m² by the end of 2023. Up from €7.00/m² at the end of 2022, this figure represents the highest value to date. The rate of price increases in the previous year was even higher, however, at 17.6 % after starting out at €5.95/m². The current five-year average of €6.46/m² was exceeded by 24% in 2023.

Average rents rose by 5%, thus seeing a more moderate increase than prime rents, and recorded a new high to date of €6.30/m², up from €6.00/m². The five-year average of €6.68/m² was exceeded by 20%.

 

 

REALOGIS media contact:
Silke Westermann
Senior public relations specialist
Tel: +49/211/53 88 3-440
e-mail:
s.westermann@shcommunication.de

REALOGIS company contact:
REALOGIS Holding GmbH
Silja Schuppler
Marketing
Rundfunkplatz 4, 80335 Munich
Tel: +49/89/51 55 69 17
e-mail:
s.schuppler@realogis.de
www.realogis.de

REALOGIS. No. 1 for industrial and logistics properties

The REALOGIS Group is Germany’s leading player for the consulting and brokering of industrial, logistics and commercial properties. Founded in 2005 as a pioneer for the asset class of logistics and industry, the owner-operated group has enjoyed healthy growth, is crisis-resistant and knows the German market like no other. In 2022 Realogis generated nearly 1.25 million m² of usable space alone in the letting segment (preliminary result). The net commission revenue of all services in the financial year 2022 are EUR 22.74 million (preliminary result).

In 2021, REALOGIS also won the German Real Estate Prize in the “Commercial Player” category, which honours companies for their outstanding commitment, creativity, innovative strength and sustainability.

Realogis is represented in the country’s seven top logistics locations of Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt am Main, Hamburg, Leipzig, Munich and Stuttgart, while a dedicated organisational unit ensures transparency in around 15 additional regional logistics markets. 70 real estate professionals advise national and international companies from the fields of logistics, e-commerce, retail and industry as well as private and institutional investors. Quick, flexible, regional, customer-oriented and with a high volume of transactions.

REALOGIS four core competencies are arranging highly creditworthy tenants for new and existing properties, assisting investors with property investments and project development of greenfields and brownfields, outstanding service for locating or selling sites, and the development and implementation of holistic property strategies.

In short, REALOGIS creates more room for its customers’ success in every sense. Further information: https://www.realogis.de/

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