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Market report Hamburg full year 2022
- About the logistics market in the economic region
Setback for the Hamburg logistics market
The Hamburg market for warehouse, logistics and industrial space failed to maintain the previous year’s strong result of 630,000 m² of rental and owner-occupied space brokered by all market participants, slipping by a considerable 22.2% to 490,000 m². This is revealed by our latest market report.
After two consecutive years of clear growth, this is a significant setback for the market. 2022 was again characterised by a very limited supply of space at the same time as high underlying demand. However, the current figure is only 2% lower than the five-year average of 498,000 m². In 2018, exactly the same amount of space was brokered as in 2022. In 2019, take-up was only 360,000 m².
A positive factor is the large number of high-volume deals for units of more than 20,000 m². Big boxes – properties of 10,000 m² or more, with logistics as the main type of use and an office share of no more than 20% – made a crucial contribution to take-up. They took three-quarters of all space brokered in the reporting period, or 372,400 m².
- This year’s result for all market participants around 22% lower than top result of 2021
- Only slightly below five-year average
- Big boxes responsible for three-quarters of all new lettings
- Top seven lessees account for 40% of take-up
- Restraint on the investment and project development market
- Muted forecast for 2023
- Hamburg South leads the region ranking once again
- Retail overtakes logistics to top the sector ranking
- Two size segments are responsible for around 80% of take-up
- Prime rent climbs by 16.4%
Business parks accounted for 21% or 102,900 m². We define a business park as a contiguous business district that is developed and implemented with a uniform concept and whose infrastructure is used jointly by the companies based there.
Other space not allocated to either the big box or business park categories accounted for 3% or 14,700 m².
In 2022, more than two-thirds (328,300 m²) of the Hamburg industrial and logistics property rental market related to deals in properties not owned by the user. Around 30% or 147,000 m² was attributable to owner-occupiers and another 3% or 14,700 m² to properties of unknown ownership.
Top seven lessees account for 40% of take-up
The seven top lessees together account for space of 196,000 m², contributing 40% of total take-up. This includes the three largest deals: Aldi (42,500 m²), Airbus (30,000 m²) and Pfaff Logistik GmbH (29,500 m²). Pfaff Logistik GmbH also signed one of the seven biggest leases in the previous year 2021 with a deal for 17,500 m² south of Hamburg.
According to our analysis, five of the seven top deals, or 136,500 m², were made in new logistics buildings, including the biggest deal of the year as a whole, which saw Aldi take up 42,500 m².
Lessors with highest take-up
Aldi, HH southern surrounding area, approx. 42,500 m² (new build), retail
Airbus, HH south, approx. 30,000 m² (existing property), manufacturing
Pfaff Logistik GmbH, HH eastern surrounding area, approx. 29,500 m² (existing property), logistics
Picnic, HH northern surrounding area, approx. 25,000 m² (new build), retail
JYSK SE, HH south, approx. 24,000 m² (new build), retail
Worlée, HH east, approx. 23,000 m² (new build), logistics
Sobuy, HH eastern surrounding area, approx. 22,000 m² (new build), retail
Restraint on the investment and project development market
Investors and project developers are deferring many of their pre-purchase checks. The reasons include interest rate policy and in some cases uncertainty over the calculation of construction costs.
Usage-based ancillary costs, especially for gas and electricity, are becoming ever more important to users’ decision-making. Current owners of older buildings are therefore compelled to optimise their properties. Institutional developers’ new buildings are mostly being built only with PV systems and alternatives to gas heating, such as heat pumps.
Forecast for 2023
According to our forecast, the development of the Hamburg logistics market in 2023 willdepend in particular on economic development, for which a minor recession has been predicted. Moreover, it remains to be seen how energy costs will develop over the course of the year. Nevertheless, the signs for the warehouse and logistics asset class in Hamburg, including the metropolitan areas, are positive. We assume that retail – especially e-commerce – will increase its presence in the Hamburg market. The proximity to the container terminals and the very good infrastructure are pivotal here.
Due to the reduced supply, we expect all market participants to achieve total take-up of around 400,000 m² in 2023.
Hamburg South again the region with the highest take-up
In 2022, the most in-demand region was Hamburg South with more than half of all take-up, or 259,700 m². It has thus been in the top spot since 2018. Of all regions, it gained the most ground year on year, with its share rising 7.8 percentage points (as against 285,000 m² or 45.2% in 2021 as a whole). Due to the reduction in the overall market for industrial and logistics properties in Hamburg, all regions declined in terms of absolute take-up, but the south saw the most moderate decline at 8.9%.
Hamburg South was the location of the largest deal by Aldi for 42,500 m² (surrounding area) as well as the second-largest deal by Airbus for 30,000 m² (city) and the JYSK SE deal for 24,000 m² (city). Together, these deals amounted to 96,500 m² or a third of the region’s take-up.
Hamburg East is in second placewith 151,900 m² or a share of 31%, a position it has also maintained since 2018. Besides the south, it is the only region to maintain its relative share and not cede any market share to other regions (up 0.8 percentage points from 30.2% or 190,000 m² in 2021). In absolute terms, however, take-up in Hamburg East dropped by a considerable 20.1%.
Three of the top leases and around half of take-up were concluded in the east of the metropolitan area: Pfaff Logistik GmbH (29,500 m² in the surrounding area), Worlée (23,000 m² in the city) and Sobuy (22,000 m² in the surrounding area).
The north is in third place with 53,900 m² or 11%, unchanged since 2018, compared with 95,000 m² or 15.1% in 2021 as a whole. Down 4.1 percentage points, it saw a slight relative decline in terms of absolute take-up, but an absolute drop of 43.3% (down 41,100 m² on FY 2021). Nearly half of the take-up is attributable to the top deal with Picnic for 25,000 m² in the northern surrounding area.
Least in-demand, as it has been consistently since 2018, is Hamburg West at 24,500 m² or 5%. Compared with 60,000 m² or 9.5%, the region saw a relative decline of 4.5 percentage points and reduced its prior-year figure by more than half in absolute terms (down 59.2%).
Retail overtakes logistics to top the sector ranking
Logistics/distributionis typically the leading sector in the Hamburg industrial and logistics property rental market. In 2022, however, retail tops the sector ranking with 220,500 m² or 45%. The four lessees with the highest take-up are Aldi, Picnic, JYSK SE and Sobuy, which together account for 113,500 m² or half of the take-up. Within retail, traditional retail dominates with a share of two-thirds or 147,000 m², followed by e-commerce with 73,500 m² or a share of 33%.
Coming in second is the usually first-placed logistics/distribution sector with take-up of 200,000 m² or 41%. Compared with 371,700 m² or 59% in 2021, logistics/distribution took a veritable nosedive, losing 18 percentage points of share in the sector view and almost half of its take-up in absolute terms (down 46%, 171,700 m²). The top two deals in the logistics/distribution sector are attributable to Pfaff Logistik GmbH and Worlée with cumulative take-up of 52,500 m² or 26.3%.
Since 2018, third place has consistently been held by the manufacturing sectorwith currently 55,000 m² or 11% after 69,300 m² and likewise a share of 11%. The sector’s relative share is therefore unchanged year on year despite an absolute decline of 21%. The top deal by Airbus accounts for 54% of the sector’s take-up.
In last place since 2018 is the “Other” category with 14,500 m² or a share of 3%. Compared with 44,100 m² and 7%, it has both lower relative share (down 4 percentage points) and lower absolute take-up (the largest decline of all sectors at 67%).
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Two size segments are responsible for around 80% of take-up
As in the previous year, large spaces of 10,000 m² or more accounted for the biggest market share at 68% or 333,200 m² and further extended their lead in 2022 (up 16 percentage points from 327,600 m² or 52%). All of the top seven deals were in this category and accounted for around 60% of take-up.
The size category of spaces between 5,001 and 10,000 m² was in fourthplacewith 34,300m² or 7% (compared with 75,600 m² or 12%, its relative share therefore dropped 5 percentage points).
The 3,001 to 5,000 m² size category is currently in lastplace with 24,500 m² or 5% (compared with 44,100 m² or 7%, relative share down 2 percentage points). Medium-sized to smaller spaces between 1,001 and 3,000 m² accounted for 39,200 m² or 8% of the space and are currently in third place.
The smallest spaces of less than 1,000 m² are in second place with 58,800 m² or 12%. Together with large spaces, they cover 80% or four-fifths of the square metres let.
Prime rent climbs by 16.4%
Prime rent has reached its new provisional high of EUR 7.80/m². Here, a shortageof space is coming up against continuously good demand, high construction costs and high purchase prices for land.
Compared with EUR 6.70/m² at the end of 2021, the 16.4% increase in rent is the strongest growth ever recorded by us. As a result, the five-year average of EUR 6.56/m² is also being exceeded by a significant 18.9%.
Average rent has also reached its latest peak with growth of 7.4% to EUR 5.80/m². Average rent is currently 7.4% above the five-year average of EUR 5.20/m².