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Market report on the letting of logistics properties and industrial sites in North Rhine-Westphalia for 2018

There was 15 % less rental space for industry and logistics taken up at the top logistics locations in NRW in 2018 than in the previous year, with a total letting volume of 971,000 sqm by all market participants. As a result, the market fell short of the high five-year average of around 1 million sqm by 7 %.

In the five-year period under review, the letting volume that was achieved in the months from January to December 2018 represents the third-best result after the two previous record-breaking years (2016: 1,502,000 sqm and 2017: 1,144,000 sqm). The Düsseldorf logistics market contributed substantially to the second year of decline in a row in 2018.

 
Logistik Immobilien Marktbericht

Logistik Immobilien Marktbericht


Düsseldorf / Mönchengladbach / Lower Rhine market area

The market recovery starting in the third quarter was unable to make up for the muted first half of the year. As a result, the take-up in the Düsseldorf, Mönchengladbach and Lower Rhine market area in 2018 was just 255,000 sqm. Compared to the previous year, which was characterised by large-scale lettings towards the Ruhr, the market declined by 42 % (2017: 439,000 sqm) and was thus 17 % below the five-year average (approx. 310,000 sqm).

The strongest tenants included the retail and logistics sectors. The establishment of a new location by logistics service provider Seacon for e-commerce in Neuss with 35,000 sqm was the largest deal. Because of the shortage of plots of land, there was only one speculative newbuild development for logistics in the Düsseldorf market area (Holthausen). In addition, the market is characterised by a lack of potential for using space at existing properties.

The average rent this year is EUR 4.80 per sqm (+5 %); on the other hand, the prime rent remained unchanged and, like last year, is EUR 5.60 per sqm in Düsseldorf.

Relevant deals 2018

Seacon, Neuss, 35,000 sqm
Rhenus, Willich, 12,100 sqm
Flaschenpost AG, Düsseldorf, 11,300 sqm
Dirks Group, Kleve, 10,500 sqm

Forecast for 2019
Realogis expects that the letting performance will continue to decline and will be between 175,000 sqm and 220,000 sqm by the end of the year. Increases in rents by 10 %, depending on the quality and location, are to expect, especially for smaller spaces – i.e. single properties and business parks. On the other hand, rents in the medium-size and large segments are expected to remain stable at EUR 5.20 per sqm for modern newbuild spaces directly in the suburbs of Düsseldorf that are suitable for third-party use.

Logistik Immobilien Marktbericht

Cologne/Bonn / Aachen market area

The Cologne/Bonn/Aachen logistics market was characterised by several major deals in the 10,000+ sqm segment, which led to an increase of 6 % compared to the previous year. With a take-up result of 251,000 sqm (2017: 237,000 sqm), the region held its ground but was still just under the five-year average (256,000 sqm).

Apart from a small number of modern offers, the logistics market in Cologne particularly lacks spaces in the medium-size segment between 5,000 and 10,000 sqm. Overall, there is little new construction activity going on, meaning that deals predominantly involved existing properties, especially in the transport and logistics sectors.

Relevant deals 2018

Offergeld, Köln Frechen, 35,000 sqm
Grieshaber, Bedburg, 12,000 sqm
Beverages producer, Kerpen, 11,900 sqm

Forecast for 2019
For 2019, Realogis expects a decline in take-up in the region of 24 % to 40 % or in other words a letting performance of between 150,000 sqm and 190,000 sqm for all market participants. Realogis cited the lack of suitable spaces as the reason despite the high demand for logistics properties. As in the Düsseldorf market area, rents in the small and business park segments are continuing to increase.

Ruhr region

In 2018, the logistics market in the Ruhr region presented itself at a good level comparable to the previous year. The Ruhr region contributed the most to the NRW logistics market and was characterised by very good demand, especially from logistics service providers. With a letting volume of 465,000 sqm (2017: 468,000 sqm), it is just under the five-year average (484,000 sqm). Leases were predominantly for new construction developments because available existing space continues to be scarce.

While the prime rent in the Duisburg logport has increased by 4 % to EUR 5.00 per sqm, the average rent is like last year EUR 3.95 per sqm.

Many deals were for the 15,000+ sqm segment, and included Geodis (40,000 sqm) in the Ruhr region/ Oberhausen and Rewe (45,000 sqm) in Dortmund. However, no big-box deals of 50,000 sqm and more took place.

Relevant deals 2018

Rewe, Dortmund, 45,000 sqm
Geodis, Oberhausen, 40,000 sqm
Euziel, Witten, 22,000 qm
Günter Püschmann, Bochum, 16,000 sqm
Songmics, Mülheim, 14,000 sqm

Forecast for 2019
Due to the shortage of land/space – especially in terms of existing properties – Realogis expects letting performance of approx. 330,000 to 400,000 sqm this year and thus a decline in this sub-market as well. One of the key reasons for this is the shortage of land, which is continuing to get worse in 2019 and will lead to price increases for sales of land.

Logistik Immobilien Marktbericht

Logistik Immobilien Marktbericht

Fakten

  • 15 % decline in letting performance at top logistics locations in NRW
  • Third-best result of the last five years with a letting performance of 971,000 sqm
  • Five-year average missed by 7 %
  • 42 % decline in take-up in Düsseldorf


Logistik Immobilien Marktbericht

Realogis defines submarkets as the relevant available warehouse, logistics, industrial and production space in the regions Ruhr, Düsseldorf / Mönchengladbach / Lower Rhine and Cologne / Bonn / Aachen.



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Logistik Immobilien Marktbericht

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